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Which Groups Are Likely To Benefit From The Paris Agreement

Staying in the Paris Agreement recognizes the responsibility of the United States as the world`s largest economy and the largest historical contribution to the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing climate change. The United States was responsible for 18% of global emissions from 1990 to 2012, but with less than 5% of the world`s population. Through the Paris Agreement, the United States has worked with other rich countries to increase climate finance for the most vulnerable countries, which are already suffering from the most severe effects of climate change. The long-term impact on the development of renewable energy is somewhat less certain, but theoretically, the cost of hydrocarbons will increase as the limited supply decreases. Renewables, by comparison, have a theoretically unlimited source of energy from the sun, wind, heat or water, which would mean that energy prices for end users would fall. Cost reduction is expected to lead to increased cost-effectiveness and efficiency for end-users. We chose two temperature benchmarks, to experience a warming of 1.5°C and 3.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, as target warming scenarios. In the 1.5°C warming scenario, we assumed that the agreement would be successfully implemented and that global warming would be limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. We used RCP scenarios 8.5 and 2.6 to track the year in which target atmospheric temperatures (i.e., 1.5° or 3.5°C) are reached in each of these models (Table S3). The models simulate how changes in temperature, oxygen content (represented by O2 concentration), net primary production and other variables such as ocean current patterns, salinity and sea ice extent would affect the growth, production and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates (25) in the year in which the target temperature is reached. Fishing mortality is assumed to be the level required to achieve maximum sustainable yield in order to simulate MCP. This information was used to calculate changes in BFR and potential catches from the 2001 to 2010 average level of each taxon reported in each Zeeland`s official statistics. Next, changes in FB and MCP were estimated for each model when the atmospheric surface temperature is 1.5°C and 3.5°C warmer than the industrial pre-industrial level.

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